This is it — the race I've been waiting for. Homestead-Miami Speedway is a fun 1.5-mile circuit with significant tire wear and progressive banking that offers multiple grooves and side-by-side racing.
When the tires eventually fall off, the highest possible line is often the fastest way around the track, but running that line can also spell doom as one wiggle, bobble or mistake results in contact with the outside wall.
Therefore, it takes a certain skill set to make that line work, and the drivers who can run that line are the ones who tend to excel at Homestead.
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One driver has shown the ability to "run the wall," and run it fast, at Homestead, yet is vastly undervalued based on current Dixie Vodka 400 (Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET, FS1) odds.
I've been waiting to make this bet, at this racetrack, since the offseason.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) for any additional bets I add for Homestead.
NASCAR at Homestead Odds, Betting Pick
Odds as of Friday at 12:30 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where you can get a $200 sign-up bonus.
Those of you who have followed along this season probably know where I'm going here … and yes, it's Tyler Reddick.
Reddick has three starts in the Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series at Homestead, with finishes of sixth, third and second.
His finishes improved with every Truck series start, and he was even better once graduating to the NASCAR XFINITY Series.
Reddick won the pole and finished fourth in his first XFINITY race at Homestead in 2017, then ripped off back-to-back wins in 2018 and 2019 to not only earn trips to Victory Lane, but to also secure series championships both seasons.
The two-time defending XFINITY champ has mastered the high line on long runs at Homestead, so it's no surprise that he also ran the most fast laps in those 2018 and 2019 title events.
So far this season, the Cup Series has run three races at high tire wear tracks (Auto Club Speedway, Darlington Raceway and Atlanta Motor Speedway) during the heat of the day, and Reddick owns the ninth-best average finish across those events.
Reddick has already shown to be a capable top-10 performer at similar racetracks, and considering Homestead-Miami Speedway has historically been his best, I'm all over him at 70-1 to win Sunday's Dixie Vodka 400.
