With seven races now in the books since the NASCAR Cup Series returned to action on May 17, we finally have some data to work, especially considering the plethora of racing at 1.5-mile circuits and tracks with significant tire falloff, which is exactly what we'll see in Sunday's Dixie Vodka 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) at Homestead Miami Speeday.
This data not only helps us pinpoint which drivers should contend for wins, but it also provides clues as to which cars have overperformed expectations this season, especially ones that oddsmakers have yet to adjust for.
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After looking at the numbers from key races this season, as well as historical performance at Homestead, one driver's odds jumped off the page as one to bet for a top-10 finish on Sunday.
NASCAR at Homestead Odds, Betting Pick
Odds as of Sunday at 7:30 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Over the two races run at high tire wear tracks since NASCAR's return from the COVID-19 postponement — The Real Heroes 500 at Darlington Raceway and the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway — Austin Dillon posted the ninth-best average finish.
Dillon has been even better at Homestead, finishing eighth at this track in 2019, which is significant since that race used the same aero package that the NASCAR Cup Series will run in Sunday's Dixie Vodka 400, but his success isn't limited to just last season.
Over the past four Cup Series race at Homestead, Dillon has the eighth-best average finish, the ninth-best average running position and the ninth-best driver rating.
In order to feel comfortable making this wager, we need to project Dillon finishing in the top 10 more often than the 29.4% probability that odds of +240 imply, which I do.
