After 500 laps around the half-mile Martinsville Speedway on Wednesday night, the NASCAR Cup Series is back in action at the Homestead-Miami Speedway on Sunday.
Not having practice since NASCAR's return from the COVID-19 pandemic has made handicapping race winners more difficult than normal, but the return to a 1.5-mile racetrack provides us more recent data to lean on.
Last weekend the Cup Series raced at Atlanta Motor Speedway, a high tire wear 1.5-mile circuit just like Homestead, so this is an important race to analyze.
In addition, we'll also look at performances in The Real Heroes 500 at Darlington back on May 17 because that track also wears out tires quickly and, more importantly, the tire combination used in that event will be the same combination used on Sunday at Homestead.
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I'm specifically interested in data from The Real Heroes 500 as opposed to the Toyota 500, which took place three days later at Darlington, as the first event was run in the heat of the day, while the Wednesday race ran at night on a cooler racetrack.
Sunday's Dixie Vodka 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) is also a day race, so I want to know which cars were best on a hot, slick track at Darlington as that will be much more similar to what the drivers experience at Homestead.
After looking at historical Homestead data, as well as recent results from Atlanta and Darlington, here are two drivers I'm betting for the Dixie Vodka 400.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) for any additional bets I make for Homestead.
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Kevin Harvick (+500) to Win at Homestead
With Tyler Reddick already in tow at 70-1, I'm passing on the mid-tier and going right for my two favorites to win the race — the first of which is Harvick.
Here are Harvick's stats from the two day races run at high tire wear tracks since NASCAR's return: two wins, best driver rating, best average running position, most laps led and most fast laps run.
And here are Harvick's finishes at Homestead since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014: first, second, third, fourth, third and fourth.
Martin Truex Jr. (+500) to Win at Homestead
While Harvick was the best driver in the heat of the day at Darlington and Atlanta, Truex was clearly the second-best performer.
Over those two races, Truex is tied for the second-best average finish, has run the second-most fast laps, has led the third-most laps and posted the second-best driver rating.
Just like Harvick, Truex has also been a rocket ship at Homestead, including finishes of first, second and second over his last three races in Miami with the most fast laps run in last year's event, which is significant because it's the same aero package that the Cup Series will run on Sunday.
And finally, since Truex won at Martinsville on Wednesday night he'll have the best pit stall at Homestead, which will only help his cause.
