Before getting into my bets for today's NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) at Homestead-Miami Speedway, I wanted to first address what is both a humble brag and a word of caution.
Last week, many of us were fortunate to hit it big when Christopher Bell crossed the finish line at the Daytona road course first, cashing outrights, top-three and top-five prop bets.
While massive betting hauls are incredible, please be aware that results like this occur very, very rarely.
In my personal NASCAR betting experience, I hadn't hit a longshot like Bell since Michael Annett won the season-opening XFINITY Series race at Daytona more than two years ago.
So, what is my point? Well, big wins can often result in overconfidence — it's natural.
With bankrolls inflated, it's easy for bettors to convince themselves to make more wagers than normal, or even to even risk more money on individual bets than they typically do.
These are among the key sports betting mistakes to avoid.
We need to put last weekend behind us and be sure that our decision-making process isn't affected.
This is the first race of the season at an intermediate track and NASCAR Cup Series teams work hard in the offseason on these programs, so while last year's results do matter — it is all we have to analyze — it's still a bit of a guessing game regarding which teams will bring the fastest cars to the track this afternoon.
As a result, I'm taking a conservative approach to betting today's race, especially with futures.
So with this in mind, here is my outright betting card for the Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) for any additional bets I make for today's race.
NASCAR at Homestead Picks
*Odds as of Sunday at 7:30 a.m. ET
First off, it's important to note that I'm coming at the bets below with Kyle Larson at 14-1 already in hand — a bet I made back on Monday when Dixie Vodka 400 odds first opened.
Tyler Reddick (+2500) To Win
Welcome to FOMO-Town. Population: me.
I love Reddick's talent, so much so that NBC Sports' Steve Letarte, who also spent years atop the pit box as Jeff Gordon's and Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s crew chief, dubbed me "The Tyler Reddick Whisperer," which sits proudly atop my Twitter bio.
I hammered Reddick at Homestead last year, and for good reason.
The driver of the No. 8 Chevy has two XFINITY Series wins at this track and was blazing fast here last season, finishing fourth (after starting 24th) while running the most fast laps and posting the fourth-best driver rating.
Just like Larson, Reddick has the unique ability to "run the wall" when tires get old and slick, which is the fastest way around the track longer into green flag runs.
So, how can I possibly lay off Reddick this week at his best track?
Well, I'm greedy.
I expected him to be a little longer than the 25-1s that have been available most of the week, so I held out.
While I've certainly been closer to "The Tyler Reddick Whiner" than "The Tyler Reddick Whisperer" when it comes to betting the Richard Childress Racing driver this week, 25-1 is still a very reasonable price for Reddick at Homestead.
FOMO wins again.
Christopher Bell (+2800) To Win
Following last week's win, I'm going back to the Bell well (sorry for that, but it made me laugh when I heard it in my head).
This is mostly a speculative bet on the speed we've seen so far from Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) and my respect for Adam Stevens as a crew chief.
Bell finished eighth after starting 36th at Homestead last season, and remember, that was with Leavine Family Racing.
Now with JGR, Bell should have a much faster car than he did last year.
Throw in the fact that the No. 20 Toyota will roll off third and we have a driver who will start the race with much better track position and an optimal pit stall, which is key at a track like Homestead because teams will come down pit road for four tires every time the yellow waves.
The more cautions, the more opportunities to pick up spots … or lose them … while pitting.
There's likely going to come a time in the not-so-distant future when we all chuckle about getting a driver with Bell's talent, in the series' best equipment, with a two-time championship-winning crew chief, a top-three starting spot and a fantastic pit stall at this price the week AFTER winning a Cup race.
All of this adds up to enough value to warrant a wager on Bell to win his second straight race, especially at the low-risk price of 28-1.
While the market has basically settled on Reddick's price, there is some variance regarding Bell, so be sure to shop around and lock in the best line possible, like the 28-1 that is currently available at PointsBet.
If you can't snag 28-1, I'm comfortable betting it down to 25-1.
