After a weekend doubleheader at Pocono Raceway, NASCAR will take on another flat 2.5-mile race track in Sunday's Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 (4 p.m. ET, NBC) at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
While the two tracks aren't perfect comparisons, one key similarity is that passing is very difficult at both, making track position even more important than it already is at most other venues.
So, by looking at last year's results at Indy — which was run with the current aero package — and last weekend's performances at Pocono, then mixing in starting position, we can look for drivers further down the odds board with the ability to keep their cars toward the front of the field.
And when doing this, one driver popped as a good value across multiple prop betting markets, especially to back for a top-10 finish.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) for any additional bets I make leading up to Sunday's Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400.
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Aric Almirola (+135) for a Top-10 Finish
Almirola had an absolute rocket at Pocono last weekend, with arguably the best car on Saturday and another really fast Ford on Sunday.
Over the course of both races, Almirola posted the third-best average finish, tied for the third-most fast laps, led the most laps and had the third-best driver rating.
In this same race last season, which, as I mentioned above is important because it was run with the same aero package that teams will use on Sunday, Aric managed just a 14th-place finish, but the underlying metrics show he was much better than that.
Almirola had the fifth-best average running position and the seventh-best driver rating, indicating he was clearly a top-10 car throughout the race.
And finally, the No. 10 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford will start fifth, so Aric will begin the race with that all-important track position.
