NASCAR makes its return to Sin City for a second-round playoff race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The last time NASCAR was in Vegas, COVID-19 was only weeks away from shutting down the sport. Joey Logano won that race after a caution shook up the field with four laps to go.
That places Logano among an elite group of drivers to win at Las Vegas in the era of the Gen-6 car. We should again be looking at the elite tier of drivers to win. However, Logano stole that victory from either Ryan Blaney or Alex Bowman. Blaney was leading with Bowman closing in as the last caution came out, so it's not impossible for someone from the second tier of drivers to win. However, I think it's wise to bet this second tier for top-three, top-five, or top-10 value.
Looking at today's odds, there are eight drivers who average odds of 10-1 or shorter across six major sportsbooks. These eight drivers should be our main focus.
Martin Truex Jr. (+550) to Win at Las Vegas
Harvick is the race favorite, but Truex has been the hottest driver at two of the last three 1.5-mile races.
Truex had the fastest green-flag speed at both Kansas and Kentucky among drivers without major incidents (Logano was technically fastest at Kansas but benefitted from an early exit in which he didn't run as many longer stints). In addition, Truex has the second-best average at all 1.5-mile low-wear tracks in 2020. NASCAR is bringing a right-side tire with more grip, which could create more fall off. If so, that also plays into Truex's favor. He dominated some of the race at Atlanta, a higher tire wear track, before finishing third.
The value is thin among the favorites. Truex is widely available at +550, including at FanDuel, BetMGM, and William Hill, so grab him at this price.
[Bet Martin Truex Jr. now at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.]
Ryan Blaney (+1300) to Win at Las Vegas
Blaney almost won the first race at LVMS and has been the dominant driver at 1.5-mile low tire wear tracks this year. Blaney has the top average green flag speed in three of these six races, with no finish worse than seventh.
The biggest concern is Blaney's recent form and playoff elimination. But I'll go with a solid six-race sample size here as the best driver in 2020 at 1.5-mile low-wear tracks.
Remember how I said eight drivers average 10-1 or less? Blaney is the eighth of those drivers, coming in at a 10-1 average despite this 13-1 line at FanDuel. It's crazy to me that the fastest driver all year is only the eighth favorite, even with the minor concern I noted. There's value here as low as +900, but grab him in the double digits if you can.
[Bet Ryan Blaney now at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.]
