There's no doubt about it — I've been taking an extremely conservative approach to NASCAR betting over the past couple of weeks.
Oddsmakers did a really good job setting numbers for Atlanta, with nothing really moving into a playable range for me.
Two weeks ago on Bristol's dirt track, I simply had zero clue what to expect and wasn't all that interested in risking money on something so unknown.
With the NASCAR Cup Series heading to Martinsville Speedway, my favorite track, for Saturday night's Blue-Emu Pain Relief 500 (8 p.m. ET, FS1) I'd still like to go the conservative route because, while this is my favorite track as a fan, it's one of my worst in terms of betting results.
Note to self: I suck at betting Martinsville.
Please remind me next year.
— PJ Walsh (@PJWalsh24) November 1, 2020
And while I have a moment, thank you to everyone on Twitter for reminding me about this tweet ahead of tonight's race.
Still, I do think there are enough edges to get involved, and with this in mind, here are the three bets I've made so far for the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 at Martinsville.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) in case I add more bets between now and green flag, especially with rain in the latest Martinsville weather forecast.
NASCAR at Martinsville Odds
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday at 7 a.m. ET
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr. | +500 |
| Chase Elliott | +600 |
| Brad Keselowski | +600 |
| Denny Hamlin | +700 |
| Joey Logano | +700 |
| Ryan Blaney | +800 |
| Kyle Busch | +1200 |
| Kyle Larson | +1200 |
| Kevin Harvick | +1400 |
| William Byron | +2500 |
| Alex Bowman | +2500 |
| Christopher Bell | +3000 |
| Kurt Busch | +3000 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | +6600 |
| Tyler Reddick | +6600 |
| Aric Almirola | +8000 |
| Austin Dillon | +8000 |
| Ryan Newman | +8000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +8000 |
| Chase Briscoe | +10000 |
| Cole Custer | +10000 |
| Erik Jones | +10000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +10000 |
| Chris Buescher | +12500 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +15000 |
| Ryan Preece | +20000 |
| Ross Chastain | +25000 |
| Michael McDowell | +25000 |
| Justin Haley | +50000 |
| Corey LaJoie | +75000 |
| Anthony Alfredo | +75000 |
| Quin Houff | +150000 |
| Josh Bilicki | +150000 |
| Cody Ware | +150000 |
| BJ McLeod | +150000 |
| James Davison | +150000 |
| JJ Yeley | +150000 |
NASCAR at Martinsville Picks
Martin Truex Jr. (+500) To Win
The racing at Martinsville can be unpredictable, but that doesn't necessarily result in longshot winners here.
As a result, I focused on the favorites for tonight's Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500, and after waffling a bit, eventually settled on Truex.
Martin has been the dominant driver at Martinsville in recent years, including victories in two of the past three Cup Series races, which could easily be three straight wins if it wasn't for a loose that forced Truex to pit from the lead late in last October's race.
Truex also won at Phoenix, the only other flat track (like Martinsville) that the series has visited so far this season, sealing the deal that I'll be on the No. 19 Toyota in tonight's race.
Kurt Busch (+115) for a Top-10 Finish
Kurt has been the model of consistency at Martinsville in recent years.
Over his last six Cup Series races at the track, Busch has finished in the top 12 in all six, including four top 10s.
Busch was especially impressive at this track last season, which is significant because those races were run with the same aero package and tire combination that will be used tonight.
Over those two events, the No. 1 Chevy posted the sixth-best average finish (both top 10s), the fourth-best average running position and the fifth-best driver rating.
Busch hasn't shown the speed to run up front with the favorites in recent years, but he has the uncanny ability to take care of his equipment and put together solid performances race after race at a very tough track, making him ideal for a top-10 prop bet.
Bubba Wallace (+275) for a Top-10 Finish
Martinsville is arguably Bubba's best track on the NASCAR circuit.
Here are Wallace's finishes at the track known as "the Paperclip" in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series: fifth, first, second, first, and 10th.
That's two wins, four top fives and five top 10s in five races. Not bad.
Since 2019, Bubba has three top-17 finishes in four Cup Series races, including an 11th-place run here in June.
Now, those Cup results don't exactly show top-10 speed by themselves, but let's not forget that he should see a decent bump in equipment this weekend.
Bubba's team, 23XI Racing, has a technical alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing, which has had plenty of success here throughout the years with Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr.
When provided with good equipment, like he had with Kyle Busch Motorsports in the Truck Series, Wallace has shown that he can run up front at Martinsville.
