This first race of the NASCAR Cup Series' weekend doubleheader at Michigan is in the books with Kevin Harvick taking the checkered flag less than 24 hours ago.
Oddsmakers have already turned around odds for today's Consumers Energy 400 (4:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN), getting bettors a second run at Michigan.
Because today's event will be run under very similar conditions (similar start time, same cars, same tire combination, etc.), Sunday's odds board is heavily influenced by yesterday's results.
However, by looking at more than just finishing position, we can unearth betting value for the Consumers Energy 400 that has been overlooked by sportsbooks.
Here's what the underlying metrics say about today's race at Michigan.
NASCAR at Michigan Odds, Betting Picks
*Odds as of Sunday at 7 a.m. ET
Denny Hamlin (+600)
At +250, it's hard to bet on Harvick to repeat. I don't blame anyone who goes that route, I just think there's more value trying to beat him.
In all honesty, I didn't expect Hamlin to be as good as he was yesterday. Heading into Saturday's race, the No. 11 Toyota ranked 15th in average finish and 18th in driver rating in the three previous races (Las Vegas, Kentucky and Texas) using this tire combination, but Hamlin was clearly the second-best driver on Saturday, ranking second in driver rating, fast laps and average running position.
With such little tire falloff, today will once again be a track position race, and if Hamlin can get out front of Harvick late, he should have a car fast enough to seal the deal.
And before I move onto the next driver, one piece of advice: Please be sure to shop around for the best NASCAR odds throughout the day.
At the time of writing, DraftKings Sportsbook is the only book with odds available, meaning there are still plenty of shops that have yet to open. With Harvick such a large favorite and the possibility that bettors will still play him despite the short price, you may find Hamlin (and other drivers) at better prices once the entire market opens.
[Bet Hamlin now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]
Erik Jones (+3500)
Again, I'm going to wait to until more books open to potentially add a driver from the Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney tier (let's face it, it'll probably be Blaney), but Jones is worth a bet right now at this price.
(Follow me @PJWalsh24 on Twitter for any bets I add for today's race.)
Despite an 11th-place finish yesterday, Jones was a borderline top-five car by most metrics, including the sixth-most fast laps run and the fifth-best driver rating.
In fact, just three drivers (Harvick, Hamlin and Keselowski) had a better average running position than Jones, showing that his 11th-place result is misleading and not an accurate representation of how fast his car was yesterday.
[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]
