With NASCAR's condensed schedule, including weeknight races and doubleheaders, since returning from the COVID-19 pandemic, nine days between races seems like an eternity, but that's exactly how much time will have elapsed since the Cup Series' most recent event at Kansas and Sunday's Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
New Hampshire is a flat, one-mile circuit, with Phoenix being its closest comp of the tracks run so far this season.
Cup cars will also be back with the lower-downforce, higher-horsepower race package that is run at all tracks one-mile in length or shorter.
With this in mind, I am largely passing on results from this race last season, and will look at performance in races prior to 2019 as the current short-track package more closely resembles what NASCAR used in those events.
And despite visiting Phoenix almost five months ago, I'll still roll those results into my analysis as it truly is the best comp we have, even though leaning on a single race so long ago isn't exactly ideal.
I'll be sure to post any additional bets I make for Sunday's race on Twitter (@PJWalsh24).
NASCAR at New Hampshire Odds, Picks
*Odds as of Saturday at 10 a.m. ET
Martin Truex Jr. (+850)
Separating the favorites, like Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, etc. was difficult for me this week, but I ultimately decided on Truex based on his performance with the higher-horsepower, lower-downforce package used here in 2018 and his more palatable odds.
Two years ago, Truex led the second-most laps and had the best driver rating at New Hampshire.
In fact, if we combine the three races run here from 2017-2018, Martin had the best average finish and led the most laps, making him a very nice betting option at +850 odds.
After after finishing third at Kansas, Truex will be afforded an optimal pit stall at "The Magic Mile."
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, CO, IN and WV only.]
Aric Almirola (+1800)
In 2018, Almirola finished third at New Hampshire, a performance that included the third-most laps led and the second most fast laps.
Aric finished a solid sixth-place last week at Kansas, meaning he'll also have one of the best pit stalls on Sunday, which is crucial for maintaining track position.
And finally, Almirola's incredible qualifying draw luck has struck once again as the No. 10 Stewart-Haas Ford will start on pole.
[Bet now at BetMGM. CO, NJ, IN and WV only.]
Kurt Busch (+3100)
Busch hasn't been on my radar much recently, but I'm all over him at New Hampshire.
Just like Almirola, Kurt was very fast at New Hampshire back in 2018. Busch led the most laps, ran the most fast laps and had the second-best driver rating in that race.
And yes, Busch drove for a different team then (Stewart-Haas Racing) than he does now (Chip Ganassi Racing), but his sixth-place finish at Phoenix earlier this season helps ease any of those concerns considering that track is a flat, one-mile circuit (like New Hampshire) and used the same tire combination that cars will run on Sunday.
And not only am I backing the No. 1 Chevy outright, but this car is also a good bet across a couple of Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 props.
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, CO, IN and WV only.]
