I can't remember the last time that I was this excited for a NASCAR race.
For the first time since 1996, the NASCAR Cup Series is returning to North Wilkesboro Speedway for Sunday's All-Star Race (8 p.m. ET, FS1).
While I can't wait to watch this event as a fan, there are a couple of factors that will make this race difficult to bet on, especially before we see cars on the track for practice.
The most obvious is that this track will be completely new to these drivers and teams, so we have no historical data to analyze to then compare to live NASCAR odds.
In fact, some drivers weren't even born yet the last time the Cup Series visited North Wilkesboro.
Secondly, the starting lineup for Saturday's heat races will be set by a pit crew challenge instead of a typical single-lap qualifying.
So, even if we are able to identify a driver who will be fast in the race itself, one slip up during the qualifying pit stop could put that car deep in the field.
Now that I've given you a handful of reasons why I'm not interested in getting too deep on the All-Star Race right now, there's one wager with enough of an edge based on updated NASCAR odds to lock in right now.
NASCAR Pick for the All-Star Race
*NASCAR odds as of Tuesday
Based on everything above, I'm turning to Sunday's All-Star Open (6 p.m. ET, FS1) and grabbing Josh Berry to win at +450 odds (Caesars).
To start, the All-Star Open, a qualifying race for the All-Star Race's main event, has just 19 cars entered, many of which are backmarkers or mid-tier equipment.
Berry, on the other hand, will be piloting the very fast No. 48 car for powerhouse team Hendrick Motorsports.
In addition, while there isn't much data to fall back on when trying to handicap this race, Berry was very solid at Richmond Raceway, a racetrack with similarities to North Wilkesboro — they're both short, flat tracks with significant tire falloff.
Berry finished second in that event and posted the 12-best driver rating. And remember, he won't have to contend with the drivers that typically run up front, as they're already qualified for the All-Star Race and won't need to transfer in through the open.
And finally, North Wilkesboro is the type of track in which Berry has had plenty of experience, and success, running late models throughout the country.
