The 2024 All-Star Race is scheduled to start Sunday at 8 p.m. ET (FS1) at North Wilkesboro Speedway with Denny Hamlin listed as the race favorite at +425 NASCAR odds.
Kyle Larson (+750), William Byron (+800), Joey Logano (+800) and Brad Keselowski (+800) round out the top five according to live NASCAR odds from bet365.
And while odds are open, this is not a race that screams betting value to me.
First off, we have just a one-race sample (last year's All-Star Race) to analyze since the Cup Series hadn't visited North Wilkesboro since 1996 prior to the 2023 event. Second, the track surface has been repaved since the race one year ago, which essentially makes last year's results unusable.
Want another wrench thrown in the handicapping process? NASCAR will allow teams to use two different tire compounds, which, yes, you guessed it, were not available last year.
Add all of this up and we have a race with very little data to confidently examine and draw meaningful conclusions.
I'm going to have a very light card for the 2024 All-Star Race, which, as of the time of writing, has just one NASCAR pick.
NASCAR All-Star Race Odds, Best Bet
*Odds as of Sunday morning
I have no interest in outrights for the All-Star Race.
However, I am happy to scoop up plus-money whenever I'm projecting two cars to be relatively even, and that's exactly what we have with the Brad Keselowski vs. Chris Buescher driver matchup.
Buescher is currently listed at +130 to finish ahead of his RFK teammate (and car owner), though I can't find any reason to support Keselowski being such a large favorite.
In Friday's practice, Buescher was faster than Keselowski in most meaningful metrics.
And yes, Keselowski (starting second) did outqualify Buescher (starting fifth), but it's not like the gap between the two warrants a massive advantage for the No. 6 Ford, either.
Let me be clear: This is a small bet for me, but I have this driver matchup as a true coin flip and am therefore willing to dabble on Buescher at +130 odds to finish ahead of Keselowski.
The Bet: Chris Buescher (+130) over Brad Keselowski — Caesars
