Following a very exciting weekend racing on the streets of downtown Chicago, the NASCAR Cup Series returns to Atlanta Motor Speedway for Sunday's Quaker State 400 (7 p.m. ET, USA).
The pack racing and drafting at Atlanta will look wildly different than in Chicago, but that doesn't mean there isn't value to be had.
With this in mind, here's one longshot pick I'm already making for Sunday's Quaker State 400 at Atlanta.
NASCAR Pick for Atlanta
*NASCAR odds as of Wednesday afternoon
There have been nine Cup Series races run at drafting tracks – three each at Daytona, Atlanta and Talladega – since NASCAR introduced the Next Gen car prior to the start of the 2002 season.
The data over the course of these races show many of the usual suspects performing well, including Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Ross Chastain, Joey Logano and Kyle Busch.
However, Aric Almirola is firmly among those who have shown speed at this track type as well, though he can be found significantly further down the NASCAR odds board for Atlanta.
For example, Almirola has posted the eighth-best driver rating over those nine races and an even more impressive third-best average running position.
NASCAR races at drafting tracks definitely trend toward the unpredictable side when compared to traditional ovals, but Almirola has shown an ability to consistently run near the front and put his No. 10 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford in a position to win.
As of the time of writing, Almirola is available at 33-1 NASCAR odds (bet365), which is how I am starting off my betting card for Sunday night's race.
The bet: Aric Almirola +3300 to Win (bet365)
