Following a break for the Olympics, NASCAR returns for Sunday's Cook Out 400 (6:30 p.m. ET, USA) at Richmond Raceway.
While many bettors are excited to see cars return to the track, one caveat is giving me pause when it comes to breaking down NASCAR odds.
NASCAR will allow two different tire options for teams on Sunday night, adding another wrinkle to strategy, and in my mind, unpredictability.
Further, it's difficult to glean much meaningful information from practice because cars were running on different tires with varying track conditions.
As a result I'm not all that interested in building a big betting card because I frankly don't know what to expect.
In situations like these, I take a very conservative approach not only in terms of bankroll management, but also by making underdog NASCAR picks low on risk, but high on upside.
And while it breaks my betting heart a bit, I can't help but take a position on a championship favorite at +200 odds in a head-to-head driver matchup.
Bet on Kyle Larson's NASCAR Odds for Richmond
*Odds as of Sunday morning
I love Denny Hamlin on tracks with heavy tire wear like Richmond, but I believe it makes sense to fade him in a matchup against Kyle Larson on Sunday.
Yes, Richmond is one of Hamlin's best tracks and yes, the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota won here in the spring, but there is reason to take Larson in this matchup.
Since NASCAR introduced the Next Gen car prior to the 2022 Cup Series season, Hamlin has the best driver rating at Richmond, but Larson isn't far behind at third best.
Perhaps more importantly, Larson has led more laps and has run more fast laps than Hamlin across those five races, showing that the No. 5 Chevrolet has consistently been one of the top cars at Richmond over that span.
Now, please don't take this the wrong way: I still believe Hamlin should be the favorite in this matchup against Larson.
However, -250 is quite steep considering how close these two have been at Richmond in the Next Gen.
Throw in the uncertainty regarding how the second tire choice could impact strategy, and +200 odds to back Larson becomes a solid investment in my eyes.
The bet: Kyle Larson (+200) Over Denny Hamlin – Caesars
