There are varying opinions regarding racing on Bristol dirt vs. Bristol concrete, but there's no denying that NASCAR has a chance to attract a big audience on Sunday night.
The Food City Dirt Race will be nationally televised on FOX at 7 p.m. ET and shouldn't have much competition from other sports assuming that weather cooperates at the Masters, which it should.
Personally, I find this race to be too unpredictable for my liking when it comes to betting favorites and short to mid-tier outrights, but this variance can lead value down the NASCAR odds board, especially in props.
NASCAR at Bristol Pick
*NASCAR odds as of Sunday morning
Todd Gilliland's talents on dirt are very underrated.
In the Craftsman Truck Series, Gilliland finished fifth at Eldora in 2019, fourth at Bristol dirt in 2021, and fourth at Knoxville again in 2021.
In addition, the driver of the No. 38 Ford finished a very respectable 17th in this race one year ago.
And finally, Gilliland was good enough to secure a 15th-place starting position on tonight's grid via Saturday's qualifying heat races.
There are no live pit stops at Bristol Dirt either, which levels the playing field on pit road between NASCAR's top teams and ones with fewer resources, such as Gilliland's Front Row Motorsports.
Take all of what I've detailed above, throw in some dirt-racing variance, and we get a very nice value pick in Gilliland at 6-1 NASCAR odds to finish in the top 10 via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Do I expect this car to rocket its way to the front and mix it up in the top five all night? Nope.
But can he hang around the top 15 for most of the race and have an opportunity to race his way to a top-10 finish more than 14.29% of the time, which is what his 6-1 odds imply? Absolutely.
Pick: Todd Gilliland top-10 finish (+600) |
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