The Bristol Night Race has always been one of my favorite NASCAR races of the year, but is also difficult to bet, especially now.
To start, the Next Gen car hasn't performed all that well on short tracks, making it difficult for drivers, even the faster ones, to make passes.
Throw in a new right-side tire, and there's even more uncertainty for tonight's race at Bristol (6:30 p.m. ET, USA).
Overall, I'm heading into Saturday night's race with a light betting card.
However, based on the latest NASCAR odds for Bristol, there is one outright I'm getting down on right now.
It'll certainly need some help, but this driver has the history and speed to get it done tonight in Bristol.
NASCAR Pick for Bristol
*NASCAR odds as of Saturday morning
For those who know me, it makes sense that I'd be on the driver starting dead last, wouldn't it?
At least in this case, it's all-world driver Kyle Larson.
In fact, Bristol is one of Larson's best tracks, including a win in this race just two years ago and a fifth-place finish last season, the first at this circuit in the aforementioned Next Gen car.
Additionally, the No. 5 Hendrick Chevrolet was sneaky fast in practice yesterday.
It doesn't show it on the practice charts, but Larson's 10-lap and longer averages were run on older tires, so it's not all that surprising to see him further down the board than we'd expect.
So if he was so fast, why is he starting last?
Well, Larson got extremely loose in qualifying – so loose that his only option was to get out of the gas to save the car, completely killing his lap.
I'm fine with anyone passing on Larson due to starting position, his pit stall or if you want to wait to see how live, in-race betting shakes out to track his progress, lap times and to potentially get an even better price.
But with tonight's race starting smack in the middle of dinner, bedtime and other #DadLife duties, I'm going ahead and locking in Larson now at +650 NASCAR odds in the likely event that I won't be near a TV or computer if the opportunity does present itself live.
The bet: Kyle Larson (+650) to win via Caesars
