The NASCAR odds board for Darlington is quite interesting following Saturday's qualifying sessions.
Southern 500 (6 p.m. ET, USA) favorites Kyle Larson, William Byron and Martin Truex Jr. all struggled while Michael McDowell and Aric Almirola impressed by securing top-10 starting positions.
Darlington is a very tough and abrasive track that rewards patience and saving tires for longer runs, so I'm going right to a driver with plenty of past success here to find value for tonight's Southern 500.
NASCAR Pick for Darlington
*NASCAR odds for Darlington
Denny Hamlin: +500 to Win
Hamlin is good at Darlington.
I know, that's some hard-hitting analysis right there.
At the track dubbed "The Lady in Black," the driver of the No. 11 Toyota has six wins in the NASCAR XFINITY Series, including Saturday's race, and four more in the Cup Series, so he certainly knows how to get around this place.
Hamlin has also done what he's needed to do so far this weekend, posting the fifth-best 20-lap average in practice and qualifying second, ensuring he'll start the race with great track position and a top pit stall.
I'm not overthinking this (pauses for laughter) and am taking arguably the best driver in the series at Darlington in a fast car starting on the front row.
This price is down to +450 at Caesars and even to +400 at DraftKings, so be sure to shop for the best NASCAR odds and snag it at +500 if backing Hamlin to visit victory lane for the fifth time at Darlington on Sunday night.
Grid Position of Winner 30+ (+900)
Speaking of shopping for the best NASCAR odds, Caesars is offering a very interesting, and in my mind valuable, prop bet.
Just like his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Hamlin, Truex is one of the top drivers in the series at Darlington, but in this case we're getting a big discount following a poor performance in qualifying.
The two-time Darlington winner posted the fourth-best 10-lap average and the fifth-best 15-lap average in practice, so the car seems to have plenty of speed.
However, a big moment during his flying lap forced the driver of the No. 19 Toyota to get out of the throttle, leading to an extremely disappointing 31st-place starting position.
In outright markets, Truex dipped from +500 before qualifying to +700 currently, but savvy bettors can find even more value by taking the grid position winner prop at Caesars.
As of the time of writing, Caesars is offering the winner from starting position 30th or worse at +900 and, as I mentioned above, that includes Truex as well.
