I typically lean heavily on practice speeds when handicapping NASCAR Cup Series races.
However, when it comes to NASCAR odds for Dover, I'm essentially ignoring them altogether.
Practices for Sunday's Wurth 400 (2 p.m. ET, FS1) were held Saturday morning when temperatures were much cooler than they will be this afternoon.
As a result, cars will drive much differently during today's NASCAR race than they did in practice, so I'm choosing to not go overboard on what we saw on Saturday morning.
In turn, my handicapping strategy for Dover is to put much more weight on track history than practice, and in doing so, I landed on a plus-money prop for Sunday's race.
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NASCAR Odds, Pick for Dover
*Odds as of Sunday morning
Chris Buescher has been a monster (Dover joke) at the steep, concrete tracks since NASCAR introduced the Next Gen car in 2022.
To start, the driver of the No. 17 Ford has scored finishes of eighth and ninth while posting the fifth-best driver rating at Dover in the Next Gen era.
If we add in data from three races on the Bristol concrete since 2022, Buescher's stats are even more impressive, including the second-best average finish, the third-best driver rating, and top-1o finishes in all five races.
The RFK Racing driver has been a top-10 machine at this style of track, so why fight it?
I'm grabbing Buescher to score another top-10 finish in Sunday's Würth 400, which is currently available at +180 odds at bet365.
The bet:Chris Buescher (+180) for a Top-10 Finish – bet365
