NASCAR heads to Dover Motor Speedway for the 11th points-paying race of the 2024 season: the Wurth 400 on Sunday (2 p.m. ET, FS1).
Dover is a one-mile, steeply banked concrete track, which makes it a bit unique, and thus one where track history is important in evaluating driver performance.
That's what I'll be heavily relying on in addition to my statistical model, which uses machine learning methods to predict each driver's finishing-position distribution.
One driver with a strong track history really stands out at significant plus-odds to pull off a strong finish on Sunday.
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NASCAR Odds, Expert Pick, Prediction for Dover
*NASCAR odds as of Thursday
If I told you a driver had five top-10 finishes in nine career starts in quality equipment at Dover, with three other finishes between 11th and 14th, what would you peg his top-10 odds at? Maybe -120? How about even money? I wouldn't blame you if you went conservative and said +150 or +200.
Try +500.
That's what bet365 is offering us for Daniel Suarez to finish inside the top 10 this weekend. (FanDuel also has the bet available at +430.)
Suarez's lone finish outside the top 14 in quality equipment at Dover did come last year, but that was after a DNF on Lap 35. Prior to that, Suarez started 15th and ran all but four laps inside the top 15. In fact, the only laps he didn't run inside the top 15 were:
- The opening lap in which he fell to 16th
- Lap 23 when he pitted under yellow
- The final two laps he ran, when he was involved in an accident
Aside from that, he actually climbed into the top 10, where he was running ninth prior to his incident.
Suarez has always been great at Dover, claiming one of his three Xfinity Series wins there, and grabbing two runner-up finishes in the Truck Series.
His Trackhouse Racing teammate, Ross Chastain, has been the best during the two Dover races in the Next Gen era, so this team definitely has what it takes to compete at the Monster Mile.
My model makes a Suarez Top 10 around +270 as fair value, making +500 and +430 fantastic numbers.
The Bet: Daniel Suarez Top-10 finish (+500 at bet365) | Bet to: +275
