(Editor's note: The Würth 400, originally scheduled for Sunday, was rained out and rescheduled for noon ET on Monday, May 1.)
In a fortunate turn of events, rain did not completely wash out Saturday's NASCAR Cup Series on-track activity for Monday's Würth 400 (noon ET, FS1) at Dover Motor Speedway.
Group A got in a full session while Group B practiced for all but the final two minutes before precipitation started falling at the track.
Still, I'm not all that enamored with relying on practice speeds to make bets for the race, which was rained out on Sunday and rescheduled for Monday. So I'll be much more focused on track history to help sift through live NASCAR odds.
Monday's NASCAR weather forecast for Dover looks a bit more promising though nothing is guaranteed. But that doesn't mean the market is completely devoid of value, which is why I'm locking in the following pick ahead of Monday's Würth 400 at Dover.
NASCAR Pick for Dover
*NASCAR odds as of Sunday morning
This is not a race I want to be all that heavy on, but I very much like the value in the winner coming from starting positions 11-20 at +140 (FanDuel).
Here are the 10 drivers starting in those positions: Erik Jones, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Ross Chastain, Daniel Suarez, Ty Dillon, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Larson, Aric Almirola and Austin Cindric.
Other than Dillon, these are all drivers who have the track history and equipment to win at Dover, including race favorites like Larson, Hamlin, Harvick, Truex and Chastain.
The Action Network's Nick Giffen projects the winner to come from this group of drivers 50.6% of the time, which translates to odds between -102 and -103.
This is not only a bet with value, but it gives us a handful of options to root for in Monday's Würth 400 at Dover.
Pick: Starting Position of Race Winner 11-20 (+140) |
