NASCAR Odds, Expert Pick for Indianapolis: A 14-1 Pick for Brickyard 400 (Sunday, July 21)

For the second week in a row, NASCAR heads to a 2.5-mile flat track as the Cup Series returns to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval for the Brickyard 400 on Sunday (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC).

Just last week, the series was at Pocono Raceway, which should give us a good idea of who is going to be fast at IMS this weekend. While the tracks aren't directly comparable, Pocono is easily the most similar track to Indianapolis, and it should be the basis for much of our early-week analysis.

That's especially true considering that much of the field doesn't have experience on the Indianapolis oval since the series has run on the road course the last three years.

That means most of my emphasis will be on recent overall speed, especially Pocono, for my early week NASCAR best bet for Sunday's Brickyard 400.

NASCAR Odds & Pick for Brickyard 400

Last weekend Ryan Blaney won at Pocono, but he was only the second-fastest car by green flag speed, and he was only third in my FLAGS metric. The top two drivers in FLAGS were both Toyotas, with Denny Hamlin topping the charts at Pocono. Hamlin is the race favorite for the Brickyard 400, but he comes in just a bit too short to bet, with 5-1 as the longest price out there.

Instead, I'll turn to the driver who was second in FLAGS at Pocono: Martin Truex Jr.

Truex finished eighth, but he was a clear second place when we adjust for track position, strategy and number of healthy cars on a lap-by-lap basis at Pocono.

That eighth-place finish at Pocono was a much-needed solid performance for him after a string of bad luck that had seen him finish 24th or worse in five of the previous eight races.

Despite those poor results, he's had plenty of speed and still ranks third in overall speed on the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season.

We may also be getting a discount on Truex thanks to poor results at IMS, where he has no finishes better than 27th in the last four races on the IMS oval (2017-2020).

That to me is an overreaction by the market, given those results were four to seven years ago and included plenty of bad luck. In fact, in 2017 Truex was battling for the lead with Kyle Busch when both wrecked in Turn 1 on a restart with 50 laps to go. And from 2015 to 2017, Truex had three straight races at IMS with a driver rating over 100, despite the DNF in 2017.

Last weekend Truex was third in my model at Pocono, and he's third again this week – despite being given the ninth-shortest odds at BetMGM, DraftKings and ESPN BET, where he's 14-1. That means his implied odds are 6.7%, but my model has him just shy of 10% to win, making this a strong value bet.

Truex has been top three on speed for the full season, and he's been top two on true speed at the best comparable track just last week at Pocono. I love this value.

The bet: Martin Truex Jr. to win (+1400) | Bet to: +1000