The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Illinois for the Grant Park 165 on the streets of Chicago (4:30 p.m. ET, NBC).
With only eight races remaining in the regular season, points are at a premium for several bubble drivers, all of whom are strong at road courses. Alex Bowman, Chris Buescher, Ross Chastain, and Ty Gibbs are all within 19 points of each other, and any one of them could find themselves on the outside looking in if a new winner currently on the outside of the playoff picture wins any one of these next eight races.
Since these talented road course drivers could be focused on points racing, if even some of this quartet takes the sub-optimal strategy of staying out for Stage 2 points, that opens up plenty of equity for other drivers to grab top finishing spots.
As a result, I'm looking at one locked-in playoff driver, and one driver in a must-win situation.
NASCAR Odds, Picks for Chicago
Michael McDowell to Win +1400
I grabbed McDowell at +1600 at BetMGM, and he's since moved to +1400, but I'd still bet that.
McDowell is a strong road course racer in a must-win situation to get into the playoffs. In addition to his victory last year at the Indy road course, which is also flat like Chicago's street course, McDowell also captured a seventh-place finish on the streets of Chicago last year.
This year he took home a runner-up finish at the road course at Sonoma, so there's definitely win potential out of the No. 34 car.
Combining his upside with potentially reduced upside for the four points-focused drivers and I have solid value on McDowell to win even at 14-1.
The Bet: Michael McDowell to win +1400 at DraftKings or Bet365 | Bet to: +1400
Austin Cindric to Win +5000, Top-10 +250
Cindric is another driver who can solely focus on the win thanks to his victory one month ago also in the state of Illinois at World Wide Technology Raceway.
Cindric has seven top-10 finishes in 17 career road course starts, including a sixth-place finish last year at the Chicago street course. That 41.2% top-10 rate at road courses would translate to +143 as fair odds if that was his true long-term chances of finishing top 10.
Certainly Cindric has struggled at the two road course races this year, but there's enough long-term data, plus his recent victory at another flat track to show that there's still upside for the third-year driver.
Add in the fact that he can focus on the optimal strategy while others may need to points race, and there's enough value on both his winning chances and his top-10 chances for me to bite.
