The NASCAR fan in me is still blown away by last weekend's race in Atlanta.
However, the NASCAR bettor in me is ready to move away from the drafting of Daytona and Atlanta to the traditional racing we'll see for the majority of the season.
Yes, pack racing can be incredibly exciting and lead to the three-wide finishes that we saw on Sunday, but it's also very unpredictable and tough to handicap for NASCAR bettors.
The Cup Series now heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for Sunday's Pennzoil 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX), a race that should be a little easier to figure out in terms of predictability.
Now, this isn't to say that I'm calling my shot and guaranteeing a winning week by any means, just that I'm willing to be more aggressive with my betting card for Las Vegas, starting with the three NASCAR picks listed below.
NASCAR Odds, Pick for Las Vegas
*NASCAR odds as of Wednesday
Joey Logano (16-1) to Win – Caesars
Compared to his typical standards, Joey Logano struggled mightily last season, especially at the intermediate tracks like Las Vegas.
But it wasn't all that long ago that Vegas was Logano's playground, which included three wins in a span of eight races, including a victory in October 2022 because that race was run with the Next Gen car.
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However, Ford, as a whole, was off the pace for much of 2023 (minus Ryan Blaney's torrid playoff hot streak), but the manufacturer now has a new body for 2024 that could help Ford get back up to speed on the 1.5-mile tracks.
We still don't know whether that will be the case, but at 16-1 odds, I'm willing to take the leap of faith that Logano will be a legitimate contender on Sunday afternoon.
Bubba Wallace (22-1) to Win – Caesars
Speaking about new bodies, we've now reached the Toyota portion of this article.
Toyota also introduced a new body style this season, and if it's even the slightest bit better than what the manufacturer had last year, then watch out for Bubba Wallace.
At the non-drafting, 1.5-mile tracks, Wallace posted the sixth-best driver rating and tied for the second-best average finish in 2023.
That alone is good enough for me to invest in the driver who is tied for the 13th-best odds this weekend, but it doesn't even account for the chances that the Toyotas are even better with their new bodies.
Ty Gibbs (28-1) to Win – DraftKings
This is an investment in upside, and what I mean by that is that Ty Gibbs hasn't set the world on first at the 1.5-mile tracks in his Cup Series career.
However, I'm a big believer in his talent, and considering he drives arguably the best equipment in the sport, I'm willing to go ahead and grab a piece of his 28-1 odds before cars hit the track for qualifying on Saturday.
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