NASCAR heads to the 1.5-mile Homestead-Miami Speedway this weekend for the second race in the Round of 8.
With a bunch of focus on the eight playoff drivers, as reflected in the latest NASCAR odds, the non-playoff drivers can go overlooked. However, they are still out there racing hard.
With a unique track like Homestead-Miami Speedway hosting the Straight Talk Wireless 400 on Sunday (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC), it shouldn't be a surprise that it fits some drivers very well. They can rise above their equipment or talent level at other tracks to have some upside here.
That's why I'm betting on two midpack drivers this week with my NASCAR picks and predictions.
NASCAR Odds With Bets for Homestead
Kyle Larson (+300), Christopher Bell (+600), William Byron (+700) and Tyler Reddick (+700) top the NASCAR odds board to win on Sunday, according to bet365 odds on Wednesday.
However, I'm backing both Noah Gragson and Austin Dillon at +600 for a top-10 finish this weekend.
Starting with Gragson, it's clear Homestead is his best track. In five starts in the Xfinity Series at the track, Gragson picked up four top-five finishes and had a DNF in the other despite a strong showing prior to his troubles.
In his four incident-free races, Gragson averaged an eye-popping 130.2 driver rating, with 150 being perfect. Those are Kyle Larson-type numbers, albeit in a lower series, but it goes to show how much better he was than his competition at this track.
With teammate Chase Briscoe winning at Darlington – Homestead's most comparable track – I wouldn't be surprised to see Gragson put on a competitive performance and challenge for even a top-five finish, let alone a top 10.
Just last year, Aric Almirola drove the No. 10 car that Gragson now drives to a top-10 finish in this very race.
Moving on to Austin Dillon, his 10th- and fourth-place finishes are right alongside another surprise driver, A.J. Allmendinger, as the only double top-10s at Homestead in the Next Gen era. By comparison, Allmendinger is +200 for a top-10 finish at the same sportsbook.
Not only that, but Dillon's average running position in the two races is 10.5, meaning on average, he's been running the full 800 miles on the cusp of the top 10. Six-to-one odds for a top 10 seems pretty wild when we look at it that way!
Additionally, Dillon had a top-seven green flag speed in both races.
Given the unique nature of the track, I'll back these two drivers that have a solid fit to the driving style it takes to be successful here.
The Bets: Noah Gragson top-10 finish (+600 at bet365) & Austin Dillon top-10 finish (+600 at bet365) | Bet to: +450 each
