After races at more unpredictable tracks like Talladega and the Charlotte ROVAL, the NASCAR Cup Series returns to the 1.5-mile Las Vegas Motor Speedway for Sunday's South Point 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC).
Because tire wear is becoming more and more prevalent at Las Vegas, I'm eager to see practice results before getting too heavy on today's race.
However, we do have a nice sample of data at tracks similar to Las Vegas in order to pinpoint value, and after doing just that, one NASCAR prop comes to the forefront as a pick I'm making right now.
NASCAR Pick for Las Vegas
*NASCAR odds as of Wednesday
Jordan McAbee of Rotoballer is already on this bet as well, so I'm not alone in liking Bubba Wallace to score a top-1o finish at +100 in Sunday's race.
The 1.5-mile tracks have been Wallace's best track type this season, and it's not really that close.
In five races on this track type so far this season, Wallace has four top-five finishes, which is tied with William Byron for the most in the Cup Series.
In addition, the driver of the No. 23 Toyota has posted the fourth-best driver rating on 1.5s this year while leading the fifth-most laps and running the sixth-most fast laps.
Wallace also scored a fourth-place finish at Las Vegas back in March, showing that he's very capable of running well inside on the top 10 on this specific circuit.
All of this data suggests that the 23XI driver has easily been a top-10 performer – at the very least – at the 1.5-mile tracks this season, so I'm happily grabbing Wallace right now at +100 NASCAR odds to be one once again at Las Vegas Sunday afternoon.
The bet: Bubba Wallace (+100) for a Top-10 Finish via bet365
