One of my biggest flaws as a NASCAR bettor is making too many wagers, whether it be FOMO, a thirst for action or simply a lack of discipline altogether.
However, I will take this moment to pat myself on the back by saying that I have done a very good job of minimizing the number of bad (-EV) bets made so far this year.
Martinsville has entered the chat
As many of you probably know, Martinsville Speedway is my favorite track in all of NASCAR and may be my favorite venue in all of sports.
Because I love this place so much, I'm also a serial over-extender when it comes to managing my bankroll when NASCAR returns to "The Paperclip."
Similar to my diet when Taco Bell recently brought back the Mexican Pizza, I'm trying to fight my hunger for excessive NASCAR betting the best that I can.
So far I've been able to do that, though after watching practice and qualifying, there's one driver matchup that I'm grabbing for today's race at Martinsville.
NASCAR Pick for Martinsville
*NASCAR odds as of Sunday morning
I believe that the wrong driver is favored in this matchup.
Bubba Wallace immediately took to Martinsville Speedway, notching two Craftsman Truck Series wins early in his NASCAR career.
Wallace was solid here last year in the Next Gen car as well, posting the 12th-best average finish and the 14th-best average running position across two races at Martinsville Speedway.
Suarez, on the other hand, ranked 22nd in average finish and 18th in average running position in those events.
The gap between the two drivers isn't huge, but give the edge to Wallace.
In addition, while Suarez qualified second for today's race compared to Wallace's ninth, Bubba was the more impressive of the two in practice.
Wallace bested Suarez in 10-, 15- and 20-lap averages in practice, though the gap between the two was very tight.
So why is this important if they were both close on speed?
Well, the key is the timing of the practice sessions.
Suarez practiced in Group A, which offered better conditions due to the green race track.
Comparatively, Wallace went out with Group B and was still able to post faster times than Suarez even though the track conditions were less optimal.
This matchup should be priced much closer to a pick'em, so I'm scooping up the value with Bubba at +115 at Caesars Sportsbook.
The bet: Wallace (+115) over Suarez via Caesars
