NASCAR Odds for Nashville: A Mispriced Favorite to Lock in Now (Sunday, June 30)

Last week I took an aggressive approach to NASCAR odds by making three early picks, including Christopher Bell to win, which ended up working out nicely.

Looking ahead to Sunday's Ally 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, NBC) I'm not building as big of an early card as I did for New Hampshire, but I am hitting the market right now to grab another Joe Gibbs Racing driver to win outright.

Below I detail the NASCAR pick I'm pouncing on right now for Nashville.

NASCAR Pick for Nashville

*NASCAR odds as of Wednesday afternoon

The NASCAR Cup Series has run two races at Nashville Superspeedway in the Next Gen car, and I can make a fair argument that Martin Truex Jr. has been the top performer across those events.

While Truex's average finish is skewed following a 22nd-place result in 2022, a little digging shows just how fast the No. 19 Toyota has been at this track.

To start, here are his stage finishes in two Next Gen races at Nashville: First, first, fourth and second.

In addition, Truex has the best average running position, has run the most fast laps, and has led the second-most laps since 2022 at this track.

Data like this suggests that a driver should be listed among the favorites, so I was a bit surprised to see, depending on the sportsbook, up to five drivers with shorter odds than Truex to win Sunday's race.

Further, while multiple sportsbooks have Truex Jr. listed at +800 at the time of this writing, I doubt those lines are going to last for a driver who can easily be a race favorite come Sunday afternoon. You can grab Truex at 8/1 odds at ESPN BET, bet365, BetRivers and other books.

NASCAR Pick: Martin Truex Jr. (+800) to Win