Sunday is not only the first full slate of the new NFL season, but it also marks the first race of the NASCAR Cup Series' postseason.
The Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway will start at 3 p.m. ET (USA) with Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch and Joey Logano listed as the race co-favorites (bet365) according to the latest NASCAR odds.
Because cars will race in packs at Atlanta, Sunday's race will be very unpredictable, evidenced by the favorites sitting long at 10-1 NASCAR odds.
On the other hand, this unpredictability does pave the way for longer shots to overperform, which is exactly how I'm approaching my best early bet for Atlanta.
A 44-1 NASCAR Long-Shot Pick for Atlanta
*Odds as of Wednesday afternoon
In the name of transparency, I'm not looking for a large betting card for this weekend's start to the NASCAR playoffs.
However, as a bettor, you have to strike when you see value, which is exactly what I'm doing with Todd Gilliland at 44-1 odds.
There have been four drafting races so far this season: two at Daytona, one at Atlanta and one at Talladega.
Over those four races, Gilliland has the fourth-best driver rating and the third-best average running position.
In addition, Gilliland was very stout at Atlanta earlier this year, leading more laps than any other driver.
And finally, Front Row Motorsports has been blazing fast in qualifying at these three tracks this year, so it's reasonable to assume that the No. 38 Ford will start close to the front once again on Sunday.
All of this adds up to a very nice value bet for a driver who typically performs well at this style of racing, but at an extremely palatable 44-1 price tag.
NASCAR Pick: Todd Gilliland to win (+4400 at FanDuel)
