So maybe there won't be crazy tire wear this go-round at Bristol Motor Speedway?
The spring race at Bristol saw extreme wear, forcing drivers to really manage their tires to prevent blowouts.
However, after Friday's NASCAR Cup Series practice, many teams and drivers aren't expecting the excessive wear they saw back in March.
So what does this mean in terms of NASCAR odds for Bristol?
Well, my personal strategy is to essentially bypass the spring race here and look at performance at this race from one year ago with yesterday's practice and qualifying results to determine my best bet for Saturday's Bass Pro Shops Night Race (7:30 p.m. ET, USA).
A 5-1 NASCAR Pick for Bristol
*Odds as of Saturday morning
I believe Carson Hocevar is being overlooked heading into Saturday night's race.
To start, Hocevar comes to Bristol with plenty of momentum, racking up three top 10s in his last six starts, including an 11th-place finish at Daytona.
And if we look at this race from one year ago, Hocevar finished 11th, while posting the 11th-best driver rating, while racing for Legacy Motor Club.
So we know that the driver of the No. 77 Chevrolet for Spire Motorsports has shown speed over recent weeks and can perform well at Bristol under similar conditions.
But what really makes me bullish on Hocevar's chances tonight is the speed he showed on Friday.
Hocevar ranked seventh in five-lap average, fourth in 10-lap average, ninth in 15-lap average and ninth in 20-lap average before running the seventh-fastest lap in qualifying, ensuring he'll start the race will great track position and a solid pit stall.
The stars are aligning for a fast No. 77 Chevy on Saturday night, which makes me very bullish on Hocevar's +500 odds (BetMGM) to score a top-10 finish at Bristol.
The Pick: Carson Hocevar (+500) for a Top-10 Finish — BetMGM
