With practice and qualifying wrapped up for Sunday's Bank of America ROVAL 400 (2 p.m. ET, NBC) bettors can now turn their attention to analyzing the on-track data from those sessions.
In addition to on-track data, we have a solid five-race sample size from road courses in 2022 to help guide us.
One trend that's been noticeable across all the road course races is the lack of speed in the Toyotas.
This trend continued in practice and qualifying. With this group of drivers all similarly struggling, there's a large value bet hanging out there among the Toyotas.
Let's dive in.
NASCAR Pick for Charlotte
*Odds as of Sunday morning
Christopher Bell is clearly class of the field in the Toyota camp both this year, and on track this weekend.
Bell had the fastest five-lap average among the group, and also qualified the best.
However, his top Toytoa odds are simply too short to bet.
Turning to the next fastest driver this weekend, we come to Bubba Wallace.
Wallace isn't known for his road course prowess, which is why his odds are so long, but he has definitely improved. While his finishes haven't been great, his performance has actually been quite solid.
In the one race he finished, Bubba took home a top five in the chaotic Indy race.
At Road America, he worked his way forward, running as the second Toyota at one point before mechanical issues struck.
In fact, other than Indy, Bubba has had a parts failure at all four of the other road courses.
However, the same has been true for most of the Toyota stable. Not only have they struggled to find speed, but they've also struggled in the reliability department.
Bubba has the second-fastest car among the group.
That means the 18-1 price that Caesars Sportsbook is hanging is simply too long in a seven-car field.
One added bonus: He can race for the win knowing he's not in the playoffs.
My model might be a bit too high on him, but it shows fair value on his top Toyota odds at +330. Certainly he shouldn't be any worse than average among the seven Toyotas, making +600 a fair bet.
For a bit of breathing room, I'd take this down to +800.
The Bet: Bubba Wallace Top Toyota +1800 | Bet to: +800
