The last superspeedway race of the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season is here.
Sunday's YellaWood 500 (2 p.m. ET, NBC) at Talladega Superspeedway has plenty of playoff implications — no playoff driver is safe.
Expect playoff drivers to go for stage points while at the same time not being overly risky.
This style of racing may keep things a bit more tame through the first two stages, meaning true performance is more likely to come through.
As a result, I'm going with the best performer in 2022 among the six Toyotas for today's best bet.
NASCAR Pick for Talladega
*Odds as of Sunday morning
That top performing Toyota driver at superspeedways is Martin Truex, Jr.
In the three combined races at Talladega and Daytona, Truex has the highest driver rating among not only the Toyotas, but the whole field.
Luckily for him, it has also translated into solid finishes.
He picked up a 13th-place finish at the Daytona 500, followed by fifth- and eighth-place results at the other two superspeedway races.
Those finishes translate to a third, second and first among the Toyota clan.
It's safe to say only rookie Ty Gibbs should be in a tier below the rest of the Toyotas. However, Truex is +600 at BetMGM to take home top honors.
With his performance at superspeedways in the Next Gen car, he shouldn't be the driver with the second-longest odds among the Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI stable.
My model says Truex finishes as the top Toyota at an 18.2% rate, which translates to +450 as fair odds.
If you can't get him at +600 at BetMGM, +550 at Caesars Sportsbook or +500 at DraftKings will suffice.
The Bet: Martin Truex, Jr. Top Toyota +600 | Bet to: +500
