There's just one race remaining in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Round of 16 with big names like Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. all on the outside looking in.
NASCAR odds show Hamlin as the race favorite for Bristol at +350, with Keselowski listed at +1000 and Truex at +1600 for Saturday's Bristol Night Race (7:30 p.m. ET, USA).
This is important because a win would mean an automatic berth into the Round of 12 for any of the 15 playoff-eligible drivers who aren't locked into the next round.
And because a win, or even a solid points day, could significantly impact the drivers just above and below the cut line, this race could get wild — and where there's wild, there's also unpredictability.
Best Early NASCAR Picks for Bristol
*Odds as of Tuesday afternoon
I'm embracing the potential randomness by taking two different prop positions on John Hunter Nemechek for the Bristol Night Race.
To start, Nemechek was surprisingly fast at Bristol in the spring, posting the seventh-best driver rating en route to a sixth-place finish.
Additionally, the Legacy Motor Club driver ran 88.2% of laps inside the top 15, which also ranked seventh in the field.
Why is this important? Because it tells us that Nemechek didn't just luck into a good finish by running at the back and avoiding wrecks — he was a top-1o contender all race.
And finally, Goodyear will be bringing back the same high-wear tire combination that teams ran at Bristol in March, another reason to invest in more overperformance from Nemechek.
Specifically, I'm grabbing Nemechek to score a second straight top-10 finish at Bristol at +500 odds, while also dabbling that he'll finish as the top Toyota at +6600 in the event that the racing is chaotic on Saturday night.
The Picks: John Hunter Nemechek +500 for a Top-10 Finish | +6600 for Top Toyota — bet365
