It's time to get aggressive.
For the two or three of you who have been following along with these articles lately, you know I've taken an extremely conservative NASCAR betting approach recently due to a combination of repaved surfaces and new racetracks.
However, with the Cup Series visiting New Hampshire Motor Speedway, one of the more predictable tracks in my humble opinion, I'm ready to dig into NASCAR odds and won't shy away from multiple early picks ahead of Sunday's USA Today 301 (2:30 p.m. ET, USA).
Specifically, I'm leaning into one outright, one top-10 prop and one plus-money driver matchup as early NASCAR picks to take for New Hampshire.
And before we get into the NASCAR picks specifically, I want to emphasize that my idea of "aggressive" does not relate to unit sizes — please practice proper bankroll management, just as you have all season.
By aggressive, I'm not referring to the amount I'm risking on each bet, but that I'm willing to go ahead and lock in more NASCAR picks than I typically do before getting a chance to look at practice speeds and qualifying results.
NASCAR Odds, Picks for New Hampshire
*Odds as of Tuesday afternoon
Christopher Bell (+500) to Win — ESPN BET
When I bet outrights early I tend to stick to mid-range or longer-shot options that are low risk, high reward, so taking a race favorite might be a bit surprising, but sometimes the data is simply too good to ignore.
New Hampshire has been an incredible track for Bell throughout his career, no matter the series.
In two career Truck Series starts, Bell has finishes of second and first.
Shockingly, Bell was even better in the XFINITY Series, winning all three of his races at New Hampshire.
Unsurprisingly, he has shown plenty of speed in the Cup Series as well, finishing second, first and 29th in his three races for top-tier team Joe Gibbs Racing.
For the record, the poor result last year was not indicative of how good the No. 20 Toyota was as Bell ran the second-most fast laps before spinning out and hitting the wall late.
Yes, Martin Truex Jr. dominated that race and yes, one can make a very fair argument that he is the better value this weekend based on recent history at New Hampshire.
But in my mind Bell has the been the best driver in the Cup Series at the shorter, flat tracks so far this season, giving him the edge over Truex.
Bubba Wallace (+220) for a Top-10 Finish — bet365
I'm sure I didn't blow anyone's minds by having my eye on Bell for New Hampshire, but Wallace's stats here in the Next Gen car caught me completely by surprise.
In two races in this car, the 23XI Racing driver has the second-best average finish (5.5) in the Cup Series, and, perhaps more importantly, the sixth-best average running position, so it's not like Wallace stole those finishes with strategy.
Based on those numbers alone, I'm interested enough to get involved at +220 odds for a third straight top-10 finish at New Hampshire.
Brad Keselowski (+125) Over Ryan Blaney — DraftKings
Am I undervaluing Blaney's recent form? Maybe.
But when it comes to New Hampshire specifically, I'm having a hard time wrapping my brain around Blaney as such a large favorite against Keselowski.
In 23 career Cup Series races at New Hampshire, Keselowski has a stellar 9.8 average finish with 10 top fives and 16 top 10s, according to DriverAverages.com.
On the other hand, Blaney has just two top fives and four top 10s in 11 career starts.
To simplify, Keselowski has a top-five rate of 43.5% and a top-10 rate of 69.6% compared to Blaney's 18.2% and 36.4% rates, respectively.
In addition, the RFK Racing driver has the third-best average finish at New Hampshire in the Next Gen era, trailing only Truex and Wallace.
My main concern with taking this early is the realistic scenario in which Blaney outqualifies Keselowski, and by potentially a lot, though Keselowski's +125 price tag does help assuage that uncertainty.
