Tonight's Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway (6 p.m. ET, USA) is the third crown jewel event of the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season.
The Labor Day weekend tradition is a fan favorite that typically produces great racing thanks to the steeply-banked, egg-shaped oval and the track's penchant for chewing up tires.
This characteristic makes evaluating practice times more important.
That's why I really like Martin Truex, Jr. in various markets for tonight's race.
Pick your favorite or pick all of them! There's value in each bet per my model.
So what are the bets I'm interested in?
NASCAR Picks for Darlington
*Odds as of Sunday morning
Truex (+500) for Top Toyota
Truex was the fastest Toyota driver across the full range of laps in practice and currently sits at +500 to finish as the top Toyota at DraftKings.
With only six total Toyota drivers, DraftKings is basically saying that Truex is no better or worse, on average, than the other Toyota drivers.
Between practice and his track history here where he's a two-time winner, +500 as the top Toyota is simply too good to pass up.
Truex (+425) to Win Group B
Group B consists of two of Truex's Toyota teammates Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, as well as Chevy driver Ross Chastain.
It's pretty clear if I like Truex as the top Toyota, then I should like him over Hamlin and Busch.
In addition, Chastain experienced more significant tire falloff than Truex over the long run. So while they had nearly identical five- and 10-lap times, Truex widened the gap over 15 and 20 laps quite a bit.
If all drivers in this group had equal chances to win, they should each be +300. That means DraftKings is once again pricing Truex as if he should be a significant underdog here, and I just don't see that in the practice times.
Truex (-162) for a Top-10 Finish
Barstool and BetRivers are setting Truex's top 10 odds at a comfortable -162. That means Truex would need to finish inside the top 10 at a 61.8% rate to break even.
Fortunately, my model gives him a 75.0% chance of doing so, making this a very nice edge.
Truex (+1500) to Win
Truex is the third favorite to win in my model, coming in at an 11.6% chance of doing so.
That equates to break-even odds around +775. So even if my model is too high on Truex, that's well above the 6.3% implied odds that you can get at DraftKings.
By comparison, Truex is +800 at Circa, which I personally consider to be the sharpest book with NASCAR lines.
Wrap Up
To wrap this all up, you should absorb analysis from as many sources as you can. While I'm high on Truex, others may not be.
The NASCAR experts on the Action Network App have been crushing it this year, so I'd highly recommend following them.
Personally, I'm on the Truex top Toyota bet and the group bet. I'm also on Truex outright, but was quick enough to snag him at 25-1 at DraftKings when it opened lines right after qualifying.
And with so many bets available that I like, please remember to gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose so you can live to bet another day should things go awry.
Good luck and enjoy the Southern 500!
