I've taken a very conservative approach to betting on Sunday's NASCAR Ally 400 (5 p.m. ET, NBC) at Nashville Superspeedway.
In my mind, there are simply too many unknowns heading into today's race to get overly heavy, from a bettor's perspective, on the Ally 400.
However, 50 minutes of practice on Saturday helped clear up some of those questions.
While I'm still not planning on a big betting card for today's race at Nashville, one driver's odds to win the Ally 400 are simply too good to pass up.
NASCAR at Nashville Pick
*Odds as of Sunday morning
As soon as practice got underway on Saturday, it was clear the Toyota teams showed up with speed, especially in race trim.
Toyota drivers finished first, second, fifth and sixth in 15-lap average in practice, which is pretty impressive considering there are only six Toyotas in the field.
When it comes to my favorite value, I'm taking Martin Truex Jr., who drives the the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) Toyota, at 15-1 odds.
Truex didn't have much short-run speed in practice, however, that didn't seem to matter in qualifying as he secured a respectable 10th-place starting spot.
But where Truex's car really seemed to excel was on the long runs.
The JGR driver posted the seventh-best 10-lap average in practice and improved to the fifth-best average over 15 laps.
Perhaps more important is the fact that Truex confirmed his pace in an interview during qualifying, saying the car has great long run speed.
When a former Cup Series champion driver, in the series' best equipment, really likes a car that showed plenty of speed in practice, I pay attention.
When that driver is also available at 15-1 odds (DraftKings), I bet.
The bet: Truex to win (15-1)
