The NASCAR Cup Series drivers are ready to race 400 laps for Sunday's Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway (3 p.m. ET, USA).
As much as they are ready to go, bettors should be prepared to pause a bit when looking at Saturday's practice times for today's race.
Track conditions changed drastically between the first and second practice groups, relegating the second group to times nearly half a second slower per lap than the first group.
That means we need to analyze each group separately and add in track history, as well as performance on this track type and tire combination this year.
When combining all those factors, I've dug up one driver that stands out in a multitude of bets.
My favorite of the bunch is below.
NASCAR Pick for Richmond
*Odds as of Sunday morning
Let's start simple.
Joey Logano has finished in the top five in 11 of his last 18 starts at Richmond. For those scoring at home, that's a 77.8% rate.
Those last 18 starts are significant, because that marks the debut of the Gen-6 car.
Yes, Logano's one start in the Next Gen car was earlier this year where he finished 17th. But remember, Logano was running strongly all day until a faulty jack on a late pit stop cost him dearly.
Now add in his on track performance this weekend, and he shines.
On first glance, you may tell yourself "Logano was only 13th in practice."
On second glance, you may say "he only had the 10th best 10-lap average."
Both of those are true.
It's also true that he was the fastest driver in both of those times among his practice group.
That's because he went out in the slower second group, where changing track conditions meant that no driver could put up a time within about 0.4 seconds of the fastest time in the first group.
It's also true he was on pace for a much better qualifying lap until a wobble dropped him to his current 17th-place starting spot.
Oh, did I mention he has the best average running position on this tire this year?
Put simply, we're getting a driver that:
- Has a 61.1% success rate at finishing in the top five at this track over an 18-race sample size
- Was fastest in his practice group
- Has the best average running position on this tire this year
The +300 line at the Kambi books is an absolute steal. Even at DraftKings, where he's +250, there's value.
My model says he should be +220 for a break-even bet, and I think that's underrating him. That's because it's impossible to appropriately quantify his practice and qualifying times.
The Bet: Joey Logano Top-5 Finish +300 | Bet to: +200
