Texas Motor Speedway is the site for Sunday's Auto Trader EchoPark Automotive 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, USA).
Much like practice on Saturday, today's race is going to be hot and slick. Track position will be at a premium, so look for drivers to get all they can on restarts.
Because practice and race conditions will be similar, I have no issue relying on it to aid my best bet for today's NASCAR Cup Series race at Texas.
NASCAR Pick for Texas
*Odds as of Sunday morning
Prior to on-track activity, Alex Bowman had the seventh-highest overall winning odds per my model at just over 6%.
In practice, Bowman had the second-fastest five- and 10-lap average time. He was fastest in his practice group in both of these metrics.
Unfortunately for him, he got "sideways" on his qualifying lap and will start 17th.
However, practice includes many more laps than a single qualifying lap and we should trust that data more.
As a result, Bowman actually jumped up in my model to a 7.1% win probability. He also is the top Chevy in 11.7% of my model's 10,000 simulations.
That translates to fair odds of about +755.
That makes the +1200 odds Caesars Sportsbook is hanging a very appetizing bet.
Allowing for some margin of error, I'd bet Bowman to finish as the top Chevy driver down to +850.
The Bet: Alex Bowman Top Chevy +1200 | Bet to: +850
