For the second straight season the NASCAR Cup Series will race on dirt at Bristol Motor Speedway, however, there will be a couple of key differences this year compared to last.
First, this will be the debut of the Next Gen car on dirt.
Second, the Food City Dirt Race will take place at night — 7 p.m. ET (FOX) to be exact — so the track will have a lot more moisture in it than it did during last year's day race.
While we're not exactly sure who these differences will benefit, there is a consensus among drivers that this year's version of the Bristol dirt race will race much differently than one year ago, so we, as bettors, shouldn't put too much stock into the previous race on this surface.
On the other hand, we can also use this to our advantage in the way of NASCAR odds that favor certain drivers too heavily.
Let me explain.
NASCAR at Bristol Dirt Pick
*Odds as of Tuesday afternoon
I'm having a hard time understanding why Joey Logano is a -160 favorite over Martin Truex Jr. in a matchup for Sunday night's race.
As I mentioned above, I'm not putting too much emphasis on last year's race here, but even if we do, this line is still off.
Even though Logano won that race, Truex actually led the most laps and ran the most fast laps.
So unless oddsmakers are looking solely at finishing position, this matchup should essentially be a pick'em, or even lean Truex, if we're weighing speed from one year ago.
Outside of last year, we have two drivers in top Cup Series equipment taking on a track that has a handful of question marks.
Because of this, I can't really make a case that Truex will be better than Logano, but I sure as heck can't see an argument as to why Joey should be such a huge favorite.
Until we see some on-track activity, this matchup should be a pick'em, meaning there's value taking Truex at +130 based on uncertainty alone.
