Practice and qualifying for today's NASCAR Cup Series EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) produced some surprising results.
Heavy favorites Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson both failed to make the final round of qualifying. Additionally, neither driver posted a practice time inside the top 15.
Books have been slow to adjust, with Elliott and Larson still heavily favored.
The Action Network's NASCAR Bet Center shows that both drivers are +500 or shorter to win all across the industry.
These short odds mean several betting opportunities arise across a range of markets.
That's exactly the angle I'm looking for with today's best NASCAR bets for COTA.
NASCAR Picks & Predictions for COTA
*Odds as of Sunday morning
A.J. Allmendinger Top Chevy (+1400)
Allmendinger is a two-time Cup winner at road courses. He easily won the XFINITY Series race on Saturday, and there's reason to believe he's severely undervalued for today's race.
The Next Gen car was designed with road course racing in mind. A highly-skilled road racer like Allmendinger should benefit.
A new car may also hinder the performances of Elliott and Larson relative to the field as they adapt to a new car and setup.
Although Allmendinger had a slow qualifying lap, he was fast in practice.
However, books overreacted to the qualifying lap.
Allmendinger's odds to win are longer compared to earlier in the week. That applies to other markets as well.
The combination of shorter odds on Elliott and Larson with longer odds on Allmendinger creates value in the top Chevy market.
Allmendinger finished as top Chevy three times in 11 road course races with JTG Daugherty Racing. Last year with Kaulig Racing he finished as top Chevy once in five tries.
These 14-1 odds at BetMGM are just way too long for a driver of his skill set.
My model has Allmendinger finishing as top Chevy 12% of the time. I'm comfortable betting him down to 9-1.
Ford Winning Manufacturer (+310)
DraftKings is one of several books that hasn't budged much on Elliott and Larson. At DraftKings, they are +300 and +400, respectively.
That's caused DraftKings to price Chevrolet as -160 favorite to win the race.
In turn, Ford and Toyota are both +310 to win.
I really like the Ford stable, especially with Team Penske's exceptionally strong showing in practice and qualifying.
Ford drivers make up 40% of the top 10 in the starting lineup.
That doesn't even include Phoenix winner Chase Briscoe, or former series champion Kevin Harvick.
With six legitimate threats to run near the front, as well as a plethora of other drivers with much longer shots of winning, Ford should not be priced this long.
My model has Ford pegged at 32% to win the race. That's well over the 24.4% implied odds we're getting at this price.
Bottom line, I think Ford wins more than a quarter of the time. I'd bet this down to +250.
