The NASCAR Cup Series enters a new phase of the 2022 season, beginning with this Sunday's DuraMAX Drydene 400 at Dover (3 p.m. ET, FS1).
Dover, Darlington and Kansas make up the next three races. Each track is a non-drafting oval that has been on the NASCAR calendar for multiple decades.
This critical point in the season will let us see teams' true speed.
Last year, Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) dominated the Dover race, finishing 1-2-3-4. That marked only the third time in NASCAR history — and second in the modern era — where a single team swept the top four spots.
Hendrick cars also took third through fifth at the second Dover race in 2020.
With how close these teammates have run in recent Dover events, there is value on one matchup between two HMS drivers.
NASCAR Pick for Dover
*Odds as of Wednesday afternoon
William Byron and Alex Bowman have both driven full-time in the Cup Series for HMS since 2018. That gives us a perfect data set to work with.
During that time, Bowman leads Byron four wins to three in matchups at Dover. That includes Bowman's victory at last year's Dover race.
In fact, there's an argument to be made that Bowman should be a slight favorite here. Not only does he have the only win between the two drivers, but he leads Byron four-to-two in top-five finishes as well.
One of Bowman's head-to-head losses against Byron came when he was running in seventh with four laps to go and got collected in a wreck between drivers in front of him.
Bowman holds a 186-63 lead in fastest laps at Dover and a 140-28 advantage in laps led.
In other predictive stats, Bowman leads in driver rating, average running position and average green flag speed over the seven race sample.
I'll gladly take the driver with the better stats at the underdog price of +105 at BetMGM.
The Bet: Alex Bowman +105 over William Byron
