They say that if you're lucky enough to do what you love that you'll never work in a day in your life.
Well, I'm officially lucky.
My wife and I are on our yearly "holy s***, football and March Madness are finally over" vacation, yet I still can't distance myself from NASCAR betting and this damn computer.
In fact, I bought the Wi-Fi upgrade on our flight just so I could watch NASCAR Cup Series practice and qualifying yesterday.
Is this article my way of letting the Action Network accounting department know that they'll soon be seeing an expense request for Wi-Fi? Yes, yes it is.
But I'm also betting on NASCAR, so while Cocktail Christi sleeps off Saturday night's shenanigans, I'm sitting on our balcony with a coffee and bagel in hand, gambling and writing.
As my dad would say (though he'd already be into the whiskey at this point), "Ain't life grand?"
So I'm shaking off my first vacation hangover with these two props for today's DuraMAX Drydene 400 (3 p.m. ET, FS1) at Dover.
NASCAR at Dover Betting Picks
*Odds as of Sunday morning
Brad Keselowski (+1400) for Top Ford
Our own Nick Giffen is already quite heavy on Kevin Harvick as the top Ford for today's race at Dover and, no, I'm not disagreeing with him and nor would I do that here anyway — I'd whine on Twitter, just like everyone else.
Consider this a complementary bet.
Brad Keselowski never made a 10-lap run in practice, but I still very much like him for today's race for two reasons.
First, he posted the fastest five-lap average in practice, which surprised me a bit when I looked up the data.
Second — I can't take credit for this — a NASCAR betting friend of mine sent me this Keselowski tweet from yesterday:
Little too tight in qualifying but incredible in race trim https://t.co/BA5WUBn2EY
— Brad Keselowski (@keselowski) April 30, 2022
In my own personal Irish coffee-fueled NASCAR rankings, I do have Ryan Blaney and Harvick ahead of Keselowski among the Ford drivers for today's race, but that 14-1 at BetMGM is just too good to pass up for an experienced driver who showed flashes of speed in practice and loves his race car.
Am I putting too much emphasis in a driver's quote as opposed to data? Probably.
I'm a man of many, MANY, flaws, so I'll just have to learn the hard way on this one, but it's a plunge worth taking at that price.
Ryan Preece (+230) for a Top-10 Finish
Is there a worse NASCAR betting strategy than going against Bob Pockrass' information?
Well buckle up buttercup, because that's exactly what I'm doing.
Preece is in a Rick Ware Racing prepared car but there was some help from SHR folk after the car needed some work to get through tech. https://t.co/kMWU74yqV7
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) May 1, 2022
Pockrass has been consistent about this car being essentially a Rick Ware Racing effort, though the speed Preece has shown already this weekend is far and above what we normally see from the No. 15 car.
Here are Preece's rankings in five-, 10-, 15- and 20-lap average speeds in practice, respectively: third, second, fourth and fourth.
In addition, Preece backed up that speed with a 13th-place run in qualifying yesterday.
One of hardest concepts for recreational bettors to understand is that being profitable over the long haul requires you to make bets that you expect to lose.
For example, I do not expect Preece to finish in the top 10 today at Dover.
But for this bet to be a good one, he doesn't have to finish in the top 10 more than 50% of the time. Based on his +230 odds for a top-10 finish at FanDuel, the break-even point for this is 30.3%.
Backed by his speed in practice and qualifying yesterday, plus my blinding arrogance to ignore the GOAT Bob Pockrass, I believe there's more SHR resources being devoted to this car than what is being reported.
And assuming I still have your attention, please stop with the Justin Timberlake "It's gonna be May" memes.
Just like John Mulaney, this has never been and will never be funny.
