The NASCAR Cup Series is back at a short, flat track for Sunday's Ambetter 301 (3 p.m. ET, USA) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
With a few races already this season at similar-style racetracks, there's a decent amount of data to analyze when attempting to project which drivers will perform well at New Hampshire.
And after looking at the numbers, my favorite featured matchup for New Hampshire comes via Ryan Blaney vs. Chase Elliott.
NASCAR Pick for New Hampshire
*Odds as of Wednesday afternoon
When looking ahead to the race, I'm specifically interested in performances from Phoenix, Richmond and Gateway earlier this season, as this weekend's tire combination will be the same that Cup cars ran in those three events.
Over the course of those three races, Blaney wasn't only considerably better than Elliott, he might have been the best driver in all of the Cup Series.
During that span, Blaney has posted the best average starting position, the best average finish, has run the most fast laps, led the most laps, has the best average running position and the best driver rating.
Pretty good.
And let's not forget that Richmond is included in that sample, which has historically been Blaney's worst track until this season.
Elliott, on the other hand, is tied for the 16th-best average starting position, is tied for the 15th-best average finish, with the ninth-best average running position and the eighth-best driver rating.
Blaney clearly tops Elliott in most relevant metrics, with average starting position potentially being the most underrated in terms of what matters right now.
Based on those number, it's likely that Blaney will out-qualify Elliott, and potentially by a decent number of positions, which means he'd be an even bigger favorite if we wait until race day to bet this matchup.
For all of those reasons above, I like Blaney at -125 (DraftKings) to finish ahead of Elliott for Sunday's race at New Hampshire.
