Tonight's Coke Zero Sugar 400 (7 p.m. ET, NBC) marks the regular season finale for the NASCAR Cup Series.
Fourteen drivers are locked into the playoffs while two spots are up for grabs.
Currently, Ryan Blaney occupies the 15th of 16 playoff spots, while Martin Truex Jr. sits 25 points behind Blaney for the 16th and final spot.
Barring a driver grabbing his first win of the 2022 season, Blaney and Truex will both make the playoffs.
However, that all changes should we get a first-time winner for 2022.
As a result, that gives us a very specific angle on how to bet the Blaney vs. Truex featured matchup.
NASCAR Pick for Daytona
*Odds as of Saturday morning
Because of the very real possibility of a new 2022 winner at a drafting track like Daytona, Blaney and Truex need to watch each other closely.
Should Blaney fall behind Truex in points, and a new winner emerge, Blaney would miss the playoffs.
However, he can make the playoffs simply by keeping in close quarters to Truex.
Even if Blaney were to give up the maximum possible 20 points to Truex between Stage 1 and Stage 2, Blaney would still make it to the playoffs should he finish within four positions of Truex.
That means he doesn't need to pass Truex to ensure his playoff position.
As a result, it means Blaney's aggressiveness could turn down several notches if Truex fails to pick up maximum points from the two stages – because the margin for error that Blaney has would widen.
In simple terms, it's quite possible Blaney just keeps Truex within sight to secure his playoff berth, instead of aggressively racing for the win late in the race.
Add in the randomness of superspeedway racing in general, and the +120 line DraftKings is offering on Martin Truex Jr. in this matchup becomes quite enticing.
The Bet: Martin Truex Jr. over Ryan Blaney +120 (DraftKings)
