New Hampshire Motor Speedway is the site for Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race, where drivers will compete in the Ambetter 301. The race is slated to start at 3 p.m. ET and will air on USA Network.
Top manufacturer odds were just released at BetMGM, giving bettors one more opportunity at grabbing a line that shortened earlier in the week at other sports books.
Let's dive right into which bet this is and why I think it holds solid value.
NASCAR at New Hampshire Pick
*Odds as of Wednesday afternoon
Kevin Harvick opened +600 at Caesars to finish as the top Ford driver. He's now +400 there. Similarly, DraftKings shortened Harvick's odds to +500 from longer numbers.
Thankfully, BetMGM has blessed us with +575 odds for Harvick to take home top honors among the blue ovals.
I like this bet for several reasons. First, my model gives Harvick a 21.4% chance to win this bet, which is well above the 14.8% implied odds at this price. While Harvick struggled at Gateway — one of the comparable tracks to New Hampshire — he looked exceptionally strong at Phoenix and Richmond.
Both of these tracks compare better to New Hampshire given they are a bit harder on tires. In fact, the tire wear at New Hampshire should lie somewhere between Phoenix and Richmond.
At Phoenix, Harvick had a top-five car, and was in contention for the win. Ultimately, he lost out on a sequence of late restarts.
A few weeks later at Richmond, Harvick had one of the cars to beat, just barely losing out to Denny Hamlin in the end.
Harvick has also been incredibly strong at NHMS, racking up wins in three of the last seven trips to the 1-mile oval. Over the last 11 races at the track, he's only finished outside the top six twice.
Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano are priced extremely short in the top Ford market. That opens up value down the rest of the board. Of the remaining Ford drivers, Harvick is best positioned to pounce on a bad day from either driver. There may also be strategy opportunities late.
Or, like Phoenix and Richmond, he might just have one of the best cars in the field.
The Bet: Kevin Harvick — Top Ford (+575) | Bet to: (+500)
