Talladega is the venue for the final superspeedway race of the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season.
The YellaWood 500 (2 p.m. ET, NBC) should be an intense race, with no playoff drivers yet locked into the last eight.
Playoff drivers will be trying to get to the front at the end of the stages to accumulate stage points.
In the meantime, drivers who are not currently in the playoffs have won each of the four playoff races, and I'm looking at one of those to grab another win with my best value bet for Sunday's race.
NASCAR Pick for Talladega
*Odds as of Wednesday afternoon
Pop quiz: Which driver has the best average running position among the three races at Talladega and Daytona this year?
The answer: Erik Jones!
Yes, Jones has arguably been the best driver at superspeedways this year. Not only does he have the best average running position, but he's near the top in some other key metrics as well.
He has the third-most laps led, as well as the second-best driver rating in these races.
He's the only driver to appear in the top three in all three of these categories, while only Martin Truex, Jr. appears in the top three in two of these stats.
The other drivers to make a top-three appearance in one of these stats: Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Bubba Wallace and Kyle Busch.
The best available odds on these drivers range from 13-1 (Blaney) to 22-1 (Truex).
However, DraftKings and FanDuel are each hanging a 30-1 number for Jones.
I'll gladly take the guy with the longest odds – and the best stats among this group.
I didn't even mention he nearly won the first race at Talladega this year.
My model has Jones winning 5.5% of the time, so even if it's overestimating Jones, there's plenty of space here to the 3.2% implied odds.
The Bet: Erik Jones to Win +3000 | Bet to: +2500
