The NASCAR Cup Series is down to 12 drivers who are still alive for the championship after a wild race at Bristol.
Next up on the docket: 500 miles at Texas Motor Speedway.
My best bet features one of these playoff drivers in Sunday's Auto Trader EchoPark Automotive 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, USA), so let's dive into who I like, and why.
NASCAR Pick for Texas
*Odds as of Tuesday afternoon
Texas is a 1.5-mile long oval, falling into the classic intermediate-track category.
With its repave and reconfiguration prior to the 2017 season, it boasts the lowest tire wear of all tracks.
That means I'm looking at other low- and medium-wear intermediate tracks such as Las Vegas, Kansas, Charlotte and Michigan to compare to.
The recent playoff race at Kansas may be especially telling because the same tire combination that was used there that will be on the cars at Texas.
Daniel Suarez ran the third-most fastest laps in that Kansas race. He also had the 13th best average running position – despite starting 15th and being penalized on lap 111 for equipment interference.
At Michigan, Suarez led 33 laps before late problems put him two laps down.
In the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte, Suarez had one of the best cars. He led 36 laps before getting caught up in a crash on lap 346.
In the first Kansas race, Suarez started 15th and worked his way up to the top Chevy halfway through Stage 1. With 20 laps to go in the stage, Suarez spun from fourth with a flat left rear, killing his day.
Suarez has run up front a ton. He's been the top Chevy in every single one of these races at some point. Often, it's been for significant portions of the race.
DraftKings has Suarez at 20-1 to finish as the top Chevy. I'm also good with 16-1 at Caesars Sportsbook.
The Bet: Daniel Suarez Top Chevy +2000 | Bet to: +1600
