The NASCAR Cup Series returns to wine country for Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) at Sonoma Raceway.
According to early NASCAR odds for Sonoma, Tyler Reddick is the race favorite at +450, followed by Kyle Larson (+500), Chase Elliott (+500), William Byron (+850), Ross Chastain (+900) and Kyle Busch (+900) at FanDuel Sportsbook.
When it comes to finding NASCAR picks with value, road courses provide opportunities for further down the odds board to compete at the front of the field, and this is exactly where I'm turning to lock in my first early bet for Sunday's race at Sonoma.
NASCAR Pick for Sonoma
*Odds as of Wednesday afternoon
Michael McDowell comes from a road-racing background, and therefore, tracks like Sonoma Raceway allow him to carry his cars more than he can on ovals.
In fact, since the start of the 2022 Cup Series season, which is important since that's when NASCAR debuted the Next Gen car, McDowell has put together some impressive numbers on road courses.
In those seven races, the driver of the No. 34 Ford Mustang for Front Row Motorsports has finished in the top 10 four times while posting the third-best average running position and driver rating.
Perhaps even more impressive is that six of those seven finishes came in the top 13.
And while we can certainly look at road courses as a whole, many of these tracks are quite different, which is why McDowell's performance at Sonoma last year is also significant.
In that event, McDowell sped to the third-best average running position and driver rating before ultimately finishing fourth.
All of this data suggests that McDowell has easily been a top-10 car at road courses in the Next Gen, yet he's currently available at the very palatable price of +125 NASCAR odds (bet365) to score a top-10 finish Sunday at Sonoma.
The bet: McDowell (+125) for a top-10 finish via bet365.
