Oddsmakers did a really good job setting lines for the NASCAR at Martinsville featured matchups.
So much so that I'm personally not betting a featured matchup early this week — I've opted for two outrights instead, including this 30-1 longshot — but if you're looking for a little head-to-head action, there is one showing value right now.
Because I don't see much of an edge any of these four featured matchups, I turned to the Action Network's NASCAR numbers guru Nick Giffen (@RotoDoc on Twitter) to see how his model is handicapping each of the bets.
And after checking in with Giffen, one matchup is clearly the best of the bunch per his latest NASCAR at Martinsville simulations.
Let's take look.
NASCAR at Martinsville Pick
*Odds as of Wednesday afternoon
While Giffen's model still pegs Martin Truex Jr. as one of the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief (7:30 p.m. ET, FS1) favorites, it also suggests that the gap between the driver of the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota and William Byron is tighter than the current matchup odds imply.
For example, as a +140 underdog against Truex at BetMGM, the break-even point for betting on Byron is 41.7 percent.
However, Giffen's numbers project that Byron will actually finish ahead of Truex 47% of the time on Saturday night, showing that the underdog does have value in this matchup.
Please note that this line is shorter than +140 in some spots, so do your due diligence and shop for the best possible number before considering whether or not to take an early position on Byron vs. Truex.
