The final race of the 2022 NASCAR season is here with four drivers battling for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix (3 p.m. ET, NBC).
Arguably the four most deserving drivers have made it to the championship four.
Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Christopher Bell and Ross Chastain are the top four in average finish this year.
Logano put his car on the pole for today's race while Elliott starts two rows back in fifth.
Bell and Chastain didn't fare as well in qualifying, piloting their cars to 17th and 25th place starting spots, respectively.
That makes Elliott and Logano the title favorites heading into the race. Books have acted accordingly, setting a matchup between the two title contenders.
So with all the data in, how should we bet this matchup?
NASCAR Pick for Phoenix
*Odds as of Sunday morning
Elliott and Logano were neck-and-neck throughout the weekend.
Logano slightly edged out Elliott in five-lap average. However, Elliott had a small advantage over 10 and 15 laps, with Logano regaining the edge over 20 laps.
As mentioned, Logano outpaced Elliott in qualifying to grab the all-important pole position and premium pit stall.
These two drivers had a razor thin difference in my model before track activity this weekend, with Logano trailing slightly. With practice and qualifying complete, that razor thin margin is somehow even closer.
All that's to say, this matchup is as good as a tossup.
In a toss-up scenario, I'm happy to back a driver at significant plus-money. That's the case with Logano, as FanDuel is hanging a +130 number for him to beat Elliott straight up.
Since I have Elliott as a nominal favorite, I don't mind betting this down to +115.
The Bet: Joey Logano +130 over Chase Elliott | Bet to: +115
