We've reached the point in the season where the NASCAR Cup Series is returning to tracks for a second time, like Sunday's Federated Auto Parts 400 (3 p.m. ET, USA) at Richmond Raceway.
In addition, we also have data from races run at tracks comparable to Richmond, which helps to increase our sample size when attempting to project which drivers will be fast once again on Sunday afternoon.
To be frank, I want no part of three of this weekend's featured matchups for Richmond. However, one is popping as a very valuable betting opportunity.
NASCAR Pick for Richmond
*Odds as of Wednesday morning
I get that Denny Hamlin has been fast recently and won at Richmond earlier this year, but a -225 price tag (DraftKings) to outrun Kevin Harvick is just tough to swallow.
If we back out a bit and look at all four races run on this tire combination so far this season, you can make a valid argument that Harvick has actually been the better performer.
The driver of Stewart-Haas Racing's No. 4 Ford has the better average finish, average running position, has run more fast laps and has the superior driver rating vs. his Joe Gibbs Racing counterpart.
Now, I'm not suggesting that Harvick should necessarily be the favorite in this featured matchup, but that the data clearly shows that this should be much tighter than the latest NASCAR odds imply.
As a result, I'm very interested in Harvick at +215 odds, which means he needs to finish ahead of Hamlin just 31.75% of the time for this bet to have value.
The Bet: Harvick (+215) over Hamlin
