Sunday's Kwik Trip 250 at Road America (3 p.m. ET, USA) will be the third road course race of the 2022 season for the NASCAR Cup Series.
That means we have two previous races of road course data to look at with the Next Gen car. When doing so, there has been one major consistency between the two races: Trackhouse Racing is fast.
Ross Chastain won the first road course race at Circuit of the Americas (COTA), while teammate Daniel Suarez took the checkered flag first at Sonoma.
COTA and Sonoma should both correlate with Road America.
COTA is more similar in length, and NASCAR is bringing the same tire package to Road America as it used at COTA. Kyle Busch compared COTA as more similar to Road America than other road courses.
Meanwhile, Sonoma came after the Watkins Glen tire test in May, so any improvements to the road course racing package teams found at that test will already have been implemented at Sonoma.
With just a few weeks turnaround time between Sonoma and Road America, it's likely what the teams showed there will be close to what they have this weekend.
Thus, there's little reason to think Trackhouse Racing will struggle given its strength at both tracks.
That leads me to my best bet for Sunday's Kwik Trip 250.
NASCAR at Road America Pick
*Odds as of Wednesday morning
If we look at both COTA and Sonoma, Suarez is first overall in average green flag speed ranking. His 4.0 average includes a sixth at COTA and a second at Sonoma.
At COTA, it's likely his average green flag speed ranking is still an underestimate of what his true speed was.
That's because, after leading all of Stage 1, Suarez came in under the stage caution for tires and fuel which mired him mid-pack.
As a result, he spun and never had track position the rest of the day, relegating him to an average running position of 19.8 for the race.
Plotting average running position vs. average green flag speed, we see Suarez (in the blue star) falls well above the curve.
In other words, Suarez had the speed of a driver who should have had an average running position inside the top 10. However, it's likely that he'd also have run even faster by having less traffic to deal with and slower cars to pass.
Simply put, Suarez had a top-five car at COTA despite a sixth-best average green flag speed.
We all know what happened at Sonoma. Suarez captured his first Cup Series win, leading more than 40% of the race and having the second-fastest average green flag speed.
If we throw in his teammate, Chastain, into the mix it looks even better. Trackhouse Racing has won both road course races and boasts the top two drivers in average green flag speed rank.
Overall, Suarez has led 34.6% of all laps at road courses. Getting a top dog at an 18-1 price is extreme value.
My model gives Suarez a 7.4% chance of winning, compared to 5.3% implied odds at 18-1 at DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Bet: Daniel Suarez to win +1800 | Bet to: +1600
